[49260] European intelligence reports: Putin fears internal coup, Europe prepares for possible confrontation

Internal tension in the Kremlin and European fear of escalation

According to reports from Оперативний ЗСУ, based on Western intelligence reports, Russian President Vladimir Putin is operating under heavy security due to fears of assassination or an attempted coup by the political elite. Putin has significantly reduced his public appearances and moved to stay in secure facilities after it was reported that security services (FSO) identified threats from unmanned aerial vehicles. Березовый сок notes that Sergei Shoigu, former Defense Minister and Secretary of the Security Council, is flagged as a potential "destabilizing factor," especially after the arrest of his deputy, Ruslan Tsalikov, in March 2026.

At the same time, recurring reports in Politico, cited by channels such as Лачен пише and Цензор.НЕТ, suggest that European countries are preparing for the possibility of a Russian attack within the next two years. Expert Mika Aaltola noted that "Russia is exploiting a window of opportunity" against the backdrop of strained relations with the US and a lack of full European readiness.

However, there are divided opinions regarding the nature of the threat. While some parties fear escalation, Цензор.НЕТ notes that many officials believe a large-scale ground attack on NATO is unlikely due to the depletion of Russian resources in the war in Ukraine. Instead, they warn that there may be "gray-zone" or hybrid operations aimed at undermining the unity of the NATO alliance.

Economically, Фокус emphasizes that despite rising global oil prices, the Russian economy remains in a critical state, with most revenues directed toward military needs. Experts and organizations such as the ISW predict that these problems will worsen during the 2026 fiscal year, regardless of temporary cash flows from energy.