[85073] Oil market upheaval: US and Iran nearing agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz
[85073] Oil market upheaval: US and Iran nearing agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz
Reports of a burgeoning agreement between Washington and Tehran to lift the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz are leading to a decline in global oil prices and causing concern in Russia and the West.
Diplomatic efforts to change the rules of the game in the Persian Gulf
Against the backdrop of the deteriorating energy situation in the US, which reported according to Банкста that strategic reserves have dropped to their lowest levels since 1983 (340.3 million barrels), an agreement is emerging between the US and Iran to lift the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. MarketTwits notes that investment banks on Wall Street have already begun lowering oil price forecasts, fearing a shift from a deficit to a supply surplus, a move that could drive prices to yearly lows.
Implications for Russia and the West
Reports of an agreement with Tehran are raising concerns in Moscow. ЕЖ notes that falling oil prices and the lifting of the blockade could increase pressure on the Russian economy and lead to complex decisions by the Central Bank regarding interest rates. At the same time, the UK has tightened its measures; according to Пул N3 and Коммерсантъ, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has announced a new round of sanctions against the Russian "shadow fleet" and liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers.
Analysis and criticism
Analysts are divided on the motives of the Trump administration. While ИнтеллиНьюз quotes a senior US official as saying that the agreement might be less restrictive than its predecessors, Азиатские державы и Мировой кризис confirms that a number of ships have already crossed the US blockade lines. Conversely, the Zone AP channel argues that Trump's move is a strategic necessity, as warehouses at the energy hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, are at "empty" levels that could paralyze American pipeline infrastructure.
Inside Russia, the atmosphere is tense. ВРЕМЯ.UA reports on a complete shutdown of refineries following Ukrainian drone attacks, which has led to restrictions on fuel purchases at stations in Russia, while channels identified with pro-Kremlin positions such as Политджойстик and РИА КАТЮША express skepticism regarding the US administration's intentions and claim that Trump is conducting "hybrid diplomacy" for his own personal goals.