Tightening of Banking Supervision and Rise in Cash Usage in Russia Amidst Ruble Strengthening

The Russian Economy Under Pressure: Strict Supervision and a Shift to Cash

The Russian economy is facing significant structural changes. According to Baza, the trend of closing bank branches accelerated in 2026, with 600 branches closed in the first four months alone due to digitalization processes and cost-cutting. Simultaneously, state authorities are expected to impose stricter oversight on accounts with an annual turnover of over 2.4 million rubles starting in 2027, as part of the «Антидроп» ("Anti-Drop") system, which will require linking a Tax Identification Number (INN) to every bank account to combat money laundering and tax evasion.

Ruble Strengthening and Budgetary Distress

According to reports in Известия, the strengthening of the ruble against the dollar—which fell below the 70-ruble threshold—is causing heavy damage to the state coffers. Every single-ruble strengthening in the exchange rate leads to a loss of approximately 100 to 150 billion rubles in Russia's monthly revenues. Gulag notes that this trend harms revenue from energy resources, which constitute a central pillar of the budget.

The Business Sector Returns to Cash

Data from «Платформа ОФД» indicates that the rate of cash usage in Russia reached 30% of all transactions in April 2026. Experts explain this phenomenon by disruptions in access to mobile internet and the imposition of VAT on bank clearing services, which pushes small businesses into the "gray area." Сбербанк defined this shift as a "very worrying sign" for the stability of the white economy.

Additionally, The Moscow Times reports that the share of secret expenditures in the Russian budget has jumped to an unprecedented rate of about 30%, making it difficult to analyze budgetary transparency in the country. At the same time, Russian Railways (RZD) plans to tighten control over passengers by requiring identification via a dedicated government messenger starting this coming September.