[54565] Markets in anticipation of freezing the war in Ukraine: Defense stocks plummet

Markets in anticipation of freezing the war in Ukraine: Defense stocks plummet

A wave of sharp declines is hitting the shares of global defense giants, against a backdrop of increasing reports of an approach to freezing the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. According to a report on Деньги в Эфире, investors have begun a massive sale of assets, with shares of drone manufacturers (such as AeroVironment, which fell by more than half) and major defense contractors like Lockheed Martin suffering double-digit declines. Market analysts believe that "the market no longer believes in a prolonged escalation and is beginning to price in a scenario of a conflict freeze."

At the same time, the political event forecasting platform Polymarket recorded a jump to 100% in the probability of a ceasefire by the end of May-June 2026, as reported by Рифмы и Панчи and Крымский ветер. Despite this, Рыбарь, a military-analytical oriented channel identified with support for the Russian establishment, warns that "the surge in volatility in the markets does not necessarily indicate the end of the fighting," and that a real decision depends on the economic-military ability of the parties to continue the fighting.

At the diplomatic level, tones remain tense. BBC News | Русская служба reported that the Russian Ministry of Defense accuses Ukraine of more than 16,000 ceasefire violations since the beginning of May, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as reported in Крымский ветер, stated that Ukraine is taking mirroring measures in response to the continuation of Russian actions on the ground.

In addition to the Ukrainian arena, the channel Царьград ТВ, known for its nationalist-conservative stance, points to other geopolitical trends, including a possible warming in relations between Japan and Russia. Simultaneously, reports in Lomovka and The Bell point to a global fuel crisis and depletion of oil reserves following tensions in the Middle East, a factor that could add instability to the markets even after the end of the fighting in Europe.