[67936] Estimates in the security establishment: Is Iran close to economic collapse and who will replace it as a power?

[67936] Estimates in the security establishment: Is Iran close to economic collapse and who will replace it as a power?

Experts from the Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs and Security analyze the effects of the economic siege on Tehran and warn of the rise of Turkey as an alternative regional power.

The siege on Iran and the fear of Turkish empowerment

In the shadow of rising regional tensions on May 20, 2026, senior officials and experts from the Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs and Security - JCFA present a complex strategic situation regarding the future of the regime in Tehran and the regional policy implications.

Economic collapse within two months?

Oded Eilam, former head of the Counter-Terrorism Division at the Mossad and a researcher at the Center, claimed in an interview with 'Kan Reshet Bet' that the maritime and economic siege on Iran is "the most effective thing that exists." According to Eilam, the regime's reliance on oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz makes it particularly vulnerable, and his assessment is that if the economic pressure continues for another two months, the Iranian economy will reach a "point of no return." Eilam warned that attempts to reach an agreement with Tehran could provide economic oxygen to the regime and prevent its fall.

Turkey as an alternative to Iran's status

At the same time, Middle East expert Yoni Ben Menachem, a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs and Security, warns that a possible fall of the regime in Iran could lead to a dramatic strengthening of Turkey. Ben Menachem notes that Erdogan is preparing for the "day after" by establishing a "new Sunni axis" that includes Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Egypt.

According to Ben Menachem, proof of Ankara's hegemonic intentions can be found at the recent arms exhibition in Istanbul, where advanced capabilities were displayed, including an "intercontinental hypersonic missile with a range of 6,000 km" and innovative UAV systems. Ben Menachem emphasizes that Turkey is working to fill the regional vacuum that would be created in the event of Iranian weakening, something that poses a significant security challenge for Israel.