[86142] The Ukrainian government presents the economic forecast for 2027–2029

[86142] The Ukrainian government presents the economic forecast for 2027–2029

The Ukrainian government presents the budget statement for 2027–2029

The Ukrainian government has presented the budget statement for 2027–2029, based on various scenarios depending on the development of the war. According to reports from Київ ІНФО | Новини Україна 🇺🇦 and Times of Ukraine: Новини | Україна, the official forecast indicates that the dollar exchange rate could reach 51.5 hryvnia by the end of 2029, while the minimum wage is expected to rise by about 29% to reach 11,155 hryvnia.

In a report by Труха⚡️Київ, it is noted that the forecast includes two main scenarios. According to the baseline scenario, which assumes the end of the war in 2027, inflation is expected to stand at 8.9% that year, and the dollar exchange rate is expected to reach 48.3 hryvnia. However, government officials point out that even in this optimistic scenario, the local currency is expected to continue weakening gradually.

Україна Online: Новини | Політика emphasize that while the minimum wage in 2026 stands at 8,647 hryvnia, the multi-year plan seeks to raise this threshold gradually, with the increase taking place at rates of 10.4% in 2027, 8.7% in 2028, and a further increase in 2029.

Conversely, not all analysts accept the numbers at face value. Тарас Гук. Інвестиції, фінанси, бізнес raises doubts about the accuracy of the government forecasts, noting that these are technical values required for budget planning purposes. According to him, "the government has no faint idea about the future dollar exchange rate," and he points out that past estimates were significantly different from the actual reality.

At the same time, Бізнес Цензор reports on data from the National Bank of Ukraine for June 17, according to which a slight strengthening of the hryvnia rate was recorded against the dollar and the euro, although in the cash market and commercial banks, the dollar is trading above the 45 hryvnia threshold. The public is instructed to follow daily updates as published by channels like FinHub | CRYPTO | БІЗНЕС | ФІНАНСИ in their ongoing summaries.