[85618] Government forecast for 2027-2029: The dollar is expected to cross the 51 hryvnia mark
[85618] Government forecast for 2027-2029: The dollar is expected to cross the 51 hryvnia mark
The Ukrainian government has presented the budget statement for 2027-2029, indicating a gradual erosion of the hryvnia and a planned increase in the minimum wage in accordance with war scenarios.
Economic forecast for 2027-2029: The government presents scenarios for the Ukrainian economy
The Ukrainian government has published the official budget statement for 2027-2029, outlining an economic roadmap in accordance with the course of the war. According to reports in Times of Ukraine, the government expects that a gradual weakening of the local currency will occur in the coming years, with the dollar expected to reach a rate of approximately 51.5 hryvnia by the end of 2029.
Within the 'baseline scenario', which includes the end of the war in 2027, the Труха⚡️Київ channel notes that inflation of 8.9% and a dollar exchange rate of 48.3 hryvnia are expected by the end of that year. Conversely, the Україна Online channel emphasizes that even in the most optimistic scenario, the hryvnia is expected to continue to weaken throughout the period.
Alongside the data on the exchange rate, the government plan includes a wage update. According to Левый Берег Киев data, the minimum wage, which currently stands at 8,647 hryvnia, is expected to increase by a cumulative rate of approximately 29% and reach 11,155 hryvnia by 2029.
Meanwhile, the reality on the ground as of June 16, 2026, presents significantly different data. The FinHub channel reports that current cash exchange rates for the dollar are ranging between 44.55 and 45.09 hryvnia. The UA Stream channel, which aggregates market reports from today, notes that while the dollar exchange rate remains relatively stable, the euro continues to break records at banks and exchange offices in Ukraine.