[74521] Re-evaluation: Istanbul earthquake risk stands at 48%

Re-evaluation: Istanbul earthquake risk stands at 48%

Professor Naci Görür, a renowned geological expert, updated today that according to recent scientific studies, the probability of a powerful earthquake occurring in Istanbul within a 30-year timeframe has been updated to 48%, a decrease from a previous estimate that stood at over 60%. According to reports from Son Dakika Haberler Gündem, Görür emphasizes that "it is impossible to know the exact date," but the risk remains significant and requires advance preparation.

The new information received wide coverage in Turkish media. While Türkiye Gazetesi and TGRT HABER emphasized the statistical update itself, Haber Gündem noted that this is a figure intended to "cool the hearts" in light of the heavy public anxiety regarding the approaching disaster.

Beyond the numerical data, Prof. Görür criticizes the current government strategy. In reports by Sansürsüz Medya +18, Görür was quoted saying that "urban renewal does not make a city earthquake-resilient." According to him, a dedicated government ministry must be established to allocate budgets for a multi-year, 10-15 year national plan to make the entire country earthquake-resilient, as he claims, "it is the state's duty to ensure the safety of its citizens."

The cited sources are considered general news channels in Turkey that report in real-time on domestic issues, without a distinct political bias reflected in these reports beyond conveying Prof. Görür's professional information to the general public.