[74096] Ukraine warns of increased Russian pressure on Belarus: Fear of provocations and potential invasion

Ukraine warns: Russia is increasing pressure on Belarus

The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine (DPSU), as reported by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Реальна Війна, warns of an increase in tension on the northern border. According to the reports, Russia is exerting heavy pressure on the Lukashenko regime to join the war against Ukraine more extensively and with its own forces. The spokesperson for the Ukrainian Border Guard, Andriy Demchenko, noted in an interview with ТСН that although no concentration of Russian offensive forces has been identified on Belarusian soil as of now, "an invasion cannot be ruled out" and provocations at the border are even expected.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as published in ТСН, assesses that Russia and Belarus are creating a "cover story infrastructure" through false claims of Ukrainian drone incursions into Belarusian territory, in order to justify future attacks on strategic logistics routes, including the M-06 highway and the railways connecting Poland to Ukraine.

At the diplomatic level, the representative of Ukraine to the UN, as quoted in Цензор.НЕТ, argued that Belarus is losing its sovereignty and that "the regime in Minsk is allowing Russia to use its military infrastructure and airspace." According to him, Belarus's involvement is deepening through joint training and nuclear exercises, which raises the level of risk to the country.

While most Ukrainian sources emphasize security alertness, Київський купол and Оперативний ЗСУ emphasize that contrary to past scenarios, there is currently no physical evidence of a significant buildup of forces on the border, but they stress that Russia is capable of transferring offensive forces to Belarus at any given moment.