[72681] Economic tension in the Caucasus, military escalation in Ukraine, and a wave of internet blocks in Russia

Growing tension in the Caucasus: Russia's energy ultimatum to Armenia

Russia has issued a harsh economic ultimatum to Armenia against the backdrop of the latter's rapprochement with the West and the European Union. Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev sent an official letter threatening to unilaterally cancel the 2013 preferential trade and energy agreement, which guarantees duty-free supplies of gas, oil, and diamonds. The Kremlin clarified that these benefits are not to be taken for granted, while in Armenia, there are concerns about a potential impact on approximately 40% of the country's total trade volume.

On the other hand, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan rejected the threats and declared that Armenia is becoming a "crossroads of peace" and will be able to secure its financial and energy needs on its own. The Russian pressure comes in the midst of an election cycle in Armenia (ahead of June 7) and following the visit of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who signed economic and security agreements with the country, including the "TRIPP" project promoted by President Trump.

Sharp military escalation: A wave of reciprocal attacks between Russia and Ukraine

In the last 24 hours, there has been a severe escalation in the fighting between Russia and Ukraine, characterized by extensive reciprocal attacks using drones and missiles against strategic infrastructure, military facilities, and weapons factories on both sides. The Russian Defense Ministry reported an attack on Ukrainian defense industry plants and energy facilities, alongside the capture of the settlements of Granov (in the Kharkiv region) and Vozdvyzhivka (in the Zaporizhzhia region).

Conversely, Russia faced a massive drone and missile attack that included the interception of 140 drones over eight Russian regions and the Crimean Peninsula. Significant hits were recorded at an aircraft repair plant in Taganrog, at an oil terminal and refinery in Tuapse, and at administrative buildings in Sevastopol that were struck by "Storm Shadow" missiles. Against the backdrop of the intensifying fighting, Ukrainian President Zelensky appealed to US President Donald Trump to increase the supply of "Patriot" systems, while in Russia, there are warnings of a direct confrontation with the West.

Tightening digital control in Russia: VPN blocks and expansion of government surveillance

Authorities in Russia have significantly tightened restrictions on network circumvention services. Users are reporting severe disruptions and widespread disconnections of VPN and proxy (MTProto) services in the Telegram app, especially in the Moscow and Siberia regions, as part of new filtering methods by the regulator Roskomnadzor. Following these moves, a sharp 47% drop in views on Russian Telegram was recorded.

Parallel to the technological blocks, the Russian Ministry of Digital Development has dramatically expanded the scope of personal information that telecommunications companies are required to collect and transfer to security agencies (SORM agencies). The list now includes passport details, residential addresses, tax identification numbers (INN), bank details, and geolocation data—a move that experts say is intended to enable "real-time de-anonymization" of network users while imposing heavy costs on internet service providers.