[72635] Energy and political crisis: Russia threatens to stop gas supply to Armenia due to its rapprochement with the European Union

Growing tension between Moscow and Yerevan: Threat of a gas cutoff

Against the backdrop of Armenia's rapprochement with the West, Moscow has issued a harsh economic ultimatum. According to reports in Коммерсант, which is affiliated with the positions of the Russian government, Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev sent a letter to the Armenian Ministry of Infrastructure, clarifying that Russia may unilaterally cancel the 2013 agreement, which guarantees the duty-free supply of gas, petroleum products, and raw diamonds.

Maria Zakharova (on behalf of the Russian Foreign Ministry) confirmed that the letter was officially delivered, and that if Armenia continues the process of joining the European Union, "Russia will suspend the agreements." Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, representing a hardline, pro-Russian stance, clarified that "the benefits Armenia receives are not from heaven, but at the expense of the Russian Federation." According to RIA Novosti agency, about 40% of Armenia's trade volume could be affected if it leaves the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

On the Armenian side, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan rejects the threats. According to Pashinyan as reported in КБ, "It makes no sense to threaten Armenia with high prices, as we have an answer: we will have much more money." Pashinyan claims that Armenia is becoming a "crossroads of peace" and will be able to secure its needs on its own. In response to reports of threats, the Armenian Ministry of Infrastructure initially stated that no official notices had been received, but later, government officials confirmed that a letter was indeed received and would be examined.

The tension comes against the backdrop of an election campaign in Armenia, where the channel Nexta Live (which is affiliated with fierce opposition to Russia) notes that this is an blatant attempt at Russian influence. Journalist Kirill Krivosheev on the BBC estimates that the Russian pressure is intended to undermine Pashinyan's status before the June 7 elections, this while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently visited Armenia and signed economic and security agreements, including the "TRIPP" project promoted by President Trump.