Tension at the Belarusian border and Russian hybrid warfare in the Baltic states

Growing tension at the Belarusian border and hybrid threats against NATO

In a series of tense statements on May 21, 2026, the ruler of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, announced that his country does not plan to join the war against Ukraine, but noted that "Belarus will be dragged into the war only in the event of aggression against its territory". Lukashenko, known for his distinct pro-Russian positions, added in a report by Censor.net that Belarus and Russia will jointly defend "the motherland from Brest to Vladivostok."

In response to these remarks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy clarified during a visit to Slavutych, as reported in Україна Online, that Ukraine is prepared for "preemptive actions" should it identify a threat from Belarusian territory or Russian border areas. According to the ATACMS - УКРАЇНА channel, Zelenskyy emphasized that the Belarusian leadership "must be alert" and understand the consequences of aggressive steps.

At the same time, the tension is expanding toward the Baltic states. Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz called in a report by Українська правда for Ukraine to show "greater precision" in its use of drones to avoid provocations that could lead to Russian involvement in NATO airspace. Experts and diplomats, including those in a report by Євген Сасько, warn that this is a "dangerous narrative" from Moscow, which is attempting to create legitimate informational infrastructure for hybrid escalation against the Baltic states.

Regarding the nuclear threats voiced by the Kremlin, Major General in the Security Service of Ukraine, Viktor Yahun, claimed in Новини.LIVE that Lukashenko's rhetoric on nuclear weapons is baseless, as control over the arsenal remains solely in the hands of Moscow, and it is purely psychological warfare.